Breaking Down and Predicting Each Fight at UFC 302
Flyweight: Mitch Raposo (9-1) VS Andre Lima (8-0; -280)
Raposo had a decorated career at Cage Titans where he won gold. But Raposa has not faced a striker with the ability like former kickboxer Andre Lima. Lima has a career record of 8-0, with 5 knockouts. The last win was by DQ where he got bit by a fighter who was losing badly, ending the fight before Lima could finish the fight. I don’t think Raposo will be biting Lima, so I’m riding with Lima to get the finish.
Prediction: Andre Lima wins by 3rd round TKO (punches)
Women’s Bantamweight: Ailin Perez (9-2; -195) VS Joselyne Edwards (13-5)
Ailin Perez has an unorthodox style but has yet to get a finish that was what attracted the UFC to her and won her gold at another organization. This will be a close fight, but Joselyne Edwards has the reach advantage and that can cause issues for Perez. Edwards was on a 3-fight win streak before her loss to Nora Cornolle. Edwards is no stranger to fighting young upstarts in the division. I think this will be the first and probably only surprise of the night. I’m taking Joselyne Edwards to get the biggest win of her career.
Prediction: Joselyne Edwards wins by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Welterweight: Mickey Gall (7-5) VS Bassil Hafez (8-4-1; -425)
Not much is known about Bassil Hafaez so I’m not sure why he’s so heavily favored in this match. He’s got one fight in the UFC, and he lost that by a split decision to Jack Della Madalena. He stepped in on short notice and surprised a ton of people. It’s been a while since we’ve seen Mickey Gall since he got knocked out by Mike Malott. Both men have been tested in their careers. Hafez is the much better grappler and is accurate in converting on takedown attempts. I think Hafez will come out aggressive and press Gall before Gall can get settled.
Prediction: Bassil Hafez wins by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Welterweight: Phil Rowe (10-4) VS Jake Matthews (19-7; -170)
Phil Rowe was on a 3-fight win streak, all by KO, and came within a hair of beating Neil Magny who took the fight by split decision. Rowe’s striking is a problem. But Jake Matthews is a mismatch for him. Matthews has 8 submission wins and is powerful. His grappling is superior to Rowe’s. Although only 29, Matthews has been in the UFC since 2014 and is a prospect that people have been waiting to push through. He’s fought a roster of great fighters. With tough losses to James Vick, Sean Brady, Michael Morales, and Kevin Lee. He’s got wins against Diego Sanches and Li Jianglian. I don’t think Row is going to bring anything Matthews hasn’t seen, and Rowe doesn’t want to get into a wild exchange because Matthews has shown the ability to score a knockout, and has power you have to respect. However, if Matthews can’t score takedowns, Rowe’s reach advantage is a problem as he can land strikes from a safe distance. The fight can go either way.
Prediction: Phil Rowe wins by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Lightweight: Grant Dawson (20-2-1; -550) VS Joe Solecki (13-4)
Grant Dawson might have been guilty of looking past Bobby Green, as he was saying in all his post fight interviews he was going to be the one to stop Islam for the belt. He got too comfortable on his feet and got the lights put out on him. Dawson has outstanding wrestling and is 13-0 when it comes to submissions in his career. His opponent Joe Solecki is a submission specialist that has had a hot-and-cold career in the UFC. I think Dawson is going to come out aggressive and jump all over Joe Solecki. He will continue to try and prove himself as a striker, being that Solecki is less of a knockout victim than his previous opponents.
Prediction: Grant Dawson wins by 1st round TKO (punches and elbows)
Heavyweight: Jailton Almeida (20-3; -310) VS Alexandr Romanov (17-2)
Jailton Almeida was on his way to a title fight before Curtis Blaydes caught him. But Almeida was winning that fight. Romanov has the power to do the same thing that Blades did. Almeida was playing it safe before the Blaydes knockout, fighting up in a weight class. He’s usually the smaller fighter, but he’s proven himself with his grappling. But this might be a bit of a problem as Ivanov has 9 submission victories and has never been submitted, and he fought potentially one of the best grapplers in Marcin Tybura and nearly one the fight, losing by majority decision. This fight is going the distance, and it’s going to be a close call. I like Almeida to get himself back on track.
Prediction: Jailton Almeida wins by unanimous decision (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
Middleweight: Cesar Almeida (5-0, -120) VS Roman Kopylov (12-3)
Expect fireworks in this fight. Almeida is 5-0 coming from a long career of kickboxing. But he’s facing a fighter in Roman Kopylov who’s one of the best strikers in the UFC. 12 wins in his MMA career, 11 of them by TKO. His loss to Anthony Hernandez showed a weakness to defend against submission, so fighting a kickboxer might be as refreshing to him as it is to Almeida. Almeida won his last fight by KO, but this is a massive step up in competition. There could be a feeling out process, but I expect both men to feel confident in their abilities and look to end it early. The longer this fight goes, the more I like Kopylov’s chances.
Prediction: Roman Kopylov wins by 2nd round TKO (punches)
Welterweight: Randy Brown (18-5; -180) VS Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (24-7-1)
This fight can go either way in my opinion. Both men are veterans with recent impressive wins on their resume. It’s taken a while for Randy Brown to get here, but in his last 5 fights, he’s really put on some impressive performances. In 2022, he beat Khaos Williams and Francisco Trinaldo, and 2023, following a submission loss to Jack Della Maddalena, beat Wellington Turman. But in February, his biggest win came from a knockout victory over Muslim Salikhov, the last man to beat Zaleski dos Santos. But dos Santos has the most impressive last couple fights. With wins over Benoit Saint Denis and Albus Nurmagomedov, and a draw with Rinat Fakhretdinov, he faced some of the most challenging fighters in the division and held his own. This fight will be close as both are strikers with similar strengths, but I’ve yet to take an underdog, so I’m riding with Zaleski dos Santos.
Prediction: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos wins by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Welterweight: Niko Price (15-7) VS Alex Morono (24-9; -270)
I think this is Price’s last shot in the UFC as he hasn’t had a win since 2021. He was knocked out by the likes of Phile Rowe and Robbie Lawler. He’s a wild fighter to watch in the octagon and is very unorthodox. But Alex Morono is a veteran who’s seen many different styles. He’s coming off a decision victory of Court McGee, and last year submitted Tim Means and took Joaquin Buckley the distance. He’s no slouch at striking, but holds an impressive 7-0 record in fights that end in submission. I think Morono is the more confident and the more well-rounded fighter coming into this fight.
Prediction: Alex Morono wins by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Middleweight: Kevin Holland (25-11; -290) VS Michal Oleksiejczuk (19-7)
There is a clear weakness here for Michal Oleksiejczuk against Kevin Holland. A lot of people know Kevin Holland for his wild brawls and constant shit talk. But the self proclaimed is a well versed martial artist. He’s got 8 submission victories to his resume, the most impressive one coming against Michael Chiesa in July of last year. His Polish powerhouse opponent has been submitted 5 times in his career. Holland is also very hard to knockout, he’s got one TKO loss to Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson but that was due to an injury. He’s got 13 knockout victories, and has stood in there recently with Jack Della Maddalena and Michael Page, two prolific strikers. I don’t think Holland will be surprised by anything his opponents will throw at him, and I think Holland has seen this weakness and will seek to exploit it.
Prediction: Kevin Holland wins by 2nd round submission (Guillotine)
Middleweight: Sean Strickland (28-6, -245) VS Paulo Costa (14-3)
Paulo Costa still has had some inconsistent performances. I’ve yet to see signs that he could be a former champion like Sean Strickland. The counter striking of Strickland will be a problem, as will his unorthodox style. Costa is always a threat to knock someone out with his power, but since the Yoel Romero fight we’ve yet to see that. And Strickland dominated Israel Adesanya in their fight, which Costa lost to the aforementioned by TKO in the 2nd round. In fact, besides a win over Luke Rockhold who retired after the fight, Costa is just 1-3 since 2019. Strickland recently lost his title in a controversial decision to Dricus Du Plesis. A lot felt Strickland was the winner of that fight. Despite both being strikers with the ability to finish fights, I think this will end with Strickland winning by decision. Expect a feeling out process early, followed by a composed Strickland controlling the pace of the fight. At some point, Costa will throw caution to the wind and look for a knockout shot, but it won’t come.
Prediction: Sean Strickland wins by unanimous decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
Lightweight Championship: © Islam Makhachev (25-1; -600) VS Dustin Poirier (30-8)
The story would be insane. Dustin Poirier, nearing the end of his legendary career, comes in +400 underdog and beats the seemingly unstoppable champion Islam Makhachev. It would be a story that Americans would talk about for years. Similar to Rocky 4, the brawling blue collar American man beating the intimidating, unbeatable Russian is a story Americans love to tell. Unfortunately, that isn’t how this fight will go. Dustin knocked out Benoit Saint Denis in an awesome performance that saw the UFC lightweight legend as the underdog. But Poirier’s record to me doesn’t signal he can compete with Islam. There are some similarities however. When Dustin knocked out Justin Gaethje and Eddie Alvarez back in 2018, he would have to protect his spot from a featherweight legend making the jump up in Max Holloway. Poirer defeated the featherweight champion, and would look to become undisputed lightweight champion against Islam’s mentor Khabib Nurmagomedov. The fight didn’t go well for Dustin as he was smothered, and eventually submitted in the 3rd round. He’d make his way to title contention with back-to-back wins over Conor McGregor, but in eerily similar results, was submitted by Charles Oliveria, the man who Islam beat in dominant fashion for his title. Since then, he submitted Michael Chandler, but had a brutal KO loss to Justin Gaethje. Now, after the rejuvenating upset win, he’s challenging for the title against Islam Makhachev, who’s coming off a feud where he dominated then featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski in back-to-back fights. I don’t see Dustin fairing well in this. Islam is no slouch on the feet as he knocked out Volk in his last fight. He’s not the striker that Dustin is, but Islam is a far superior grappler and wrestler. I’d say this fight stays on the feet for a little in the 1st where Dustin gets some solid strikes in to fire up the crowd, but in the second, Islam takes the fight to the ground and submits Poirier. Nobody is talking about the champion, yet, I feel that’s just the way he likes it.
Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins by 2nd round submission (Rear-naked choke)
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