UFC 302 Makhachev vs. Poirier BreakDown

                                            

UFC 302 is set to be one of the most important events in UFC history. With this potentially being the last time we get to watch Dustin Poirier in the UFC, and Sean Strickland trying to start his path back to the championship, there were a lot of storylines to follow. Kevin Holland snapped a guys arm, Jailton Almeida rebounded by choking out a Russian hammer. There were multiple themes on this card, one being a kickboxer heavy lineup, and the other having many fights finishing by decision. Those two themes don’t normally go hand and hand. 

Flyweight Bout: Mitch Raposo (9-2) VS Andre Lima (9-0) 

Result: Andre Lima wins by split decision (30-27, 29-28, 27-30) 

The fact that someone saw this as 30-27 for Raposo is exactly what’s wrong with the UFC judging system. Besides scoring a takedown, Raposo wasn’t very effective or active in this fight. Lima out struck Raposo 52-32. The stand up was all Lima, even though Lima didn’t have his best performance. Andre Lima remains unbeaten improving to 9-0. He’s an interesting prospect to watch in the flyweight division. His streaking is much cleaner than what we saw today. Raposo did a good job in pressuring the kickboxer, and limiting the damage. It was a close fight, but I don’t know where someone could see Raposo winning all 3-rounds. 

Women’s Bantamweight Bout: Ailin Perez (10-2) VS Joselyne Edwards (13-6)

Result: Ailin Perez wins by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) 

The twerking Argentinian fan favorite needed to rely heavily on her takedowns to win this fight. She got picked apart on the feet by Edwards who landed 130 strikes to 68. However, when Perez did land they were significant, and Edwards only had 27 significant strikes. Edwards controlled the fight for 5 minutes, and had a submission attempt, but Perez’s grappling was really active. She kept the pressure on Edwards and kept working, and softened the threat of Edwards striking. This is now the 3rd win in a row for Perez, and a really solid victory over a tough opponent. 

Welterweight Bout: Mickey Gall (7-6) VS Bassil Hafez (9-4-1) 

Result: Bassil Hafez wins by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) 

You have to give Mickey Gall a lot of credit. He felt good after his back surgery and felt like he was going to win this fight in front of his home crowd. Hafez needed to dig deep for this win. Gall held his own on the feet, so Hafez had to rely on grappling to take this fight. He was 3-5 on takedown attempts and won the control time on the ground. The fight was really close in terms of striking. Hafez led total strikes 101-93. He mixed 5 leg kicks that would go unchecked. Hafez now won 3 of his last 4 fights. 

Welterweight Bout: Phil Rowe (10-5) VS Jake Matthews (20-7) 

Restul: Jake Matthews wins by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) 

I thought Phil Rowe’s reach was going to be more of a problem for Matthews, but I was wrong. Matthews had no problems on the feet and was the superior grappler. He had 3 minutes of control time and had 89 strikes on the feet. Matthews is now 9-4 since the move to welterweight. A really tough draw for Rowe after his last decision loss to Neil Magny. 

Lightweight Bout: Grant Dawson (21-2-1) VS Joe Solecki (13-5) 

Result: Grant Dawson wins by unanimous decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27) 

Again, where the 29-28 came from is insane to me. Grant Dawson dominated every aspect of this fight. Dawson outstruck Solecki 146-27. He controlled the fight for 13:46 and was successful on all 3 of his takedown attempts. Dawson seemed to have shook off the loss to Bobby Green, as he was extremely aggressive in this fight. There was even a moment where Solecki almost snuck in a submission. But Dawson dominated all 3 rounds. It was a good outing for him to shake off the last loss. He’s still young and his grappling and wrestling is a problem for every lightweight in the division. 

Heavyweight Bout: Jailton Almeida (21-3) VS Alexandr Romanov (17-3) 

Result: Jailton Almeida wins by 1st round submission (rear-naked choke) 

This win must feel extremely refreshing for Almeida. He learned from his past mistakes and gave Romanov no chance at landing a knockout punch like Curtis Blaydes did to the Brazilian heavyweight. Almeida took Romanov down and smothered the Russian powerhouse. The bounceback proves that Almeida deserves at the top of the division. Despite him being listed as a boxer, his grappling and submission skills have been his main means of attack. A good fight next for Almeida would be Cyril Gane. Gane’s got limited to no grappling skills, and Almeida could come out looking strong against a former title challenger. 

Middleweight Bout: Cesar Almeida (5-1) VS Roman Kopylov (13-3) 

Result: Roman Kopylov wins by split decision (28-29, 29-28, 27-30) 

This was a much different approach than we’ve ever seen Roman Kopylov take. Kopylov usually abandons take down attempts and looks for the knockout. However, with him fighting a skilled kickboxer in Almedia, Kopylov looked to exploit a weakness, and it worked. Kopylov scored 5 takedowns and attempted 9. His control time was at 8:39 in this fight. He still had a good mix of striking, knocking down Almeida once in this fight. But Almeida was clearly the superior striker, outstriking Kopylov 114-74. Again, this was a very unusual Roman Kopylov fight, as he looked to suppress fireworks instead of providing them. But to gameplan an opponent whilst trying to comeback from a submission loss in your last outing is very tough to do, and Roman deserves a lot of credit. 

Welterweight Bout: Randy Brown (19-5) VS Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 

Result: Randy Brown wins by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) 

Randy Brown really had to dig deep to win this fight. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos wasn’t very active on the feet. He only landed 42 strikes to Randy Brown's 89. EZDS converted 4 out of 7 take downs, and controlled the majority of the fight. But it was Randy Brown’s activity while on the ground that I think won him this fight. He attempted two submissions, one at the end of the second that came pretty close to putting EZDS in a tough spot. When the fight was on the feet, it was a one sided affair in favor of Brown. His reach advantage on the Brazilian was just too much. It just felt like EZDS had to walk into the fire to get any offense off. This was an impressive victory for Randy Brown, and a great follow up to his knockout of Muslim Salikhov 

Welterweight Bout: Niko Price (16-7) VS Alex Morono (24-10)

Result: Niko Price wins by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) 

I was surprised by the gas tank of Morono. He looked exhausted in this fight at the end of the 2nd round. Going into the third round he was a sitting duck. He came out aggressive early and paid the price. Niko was 5/5 on takedown attempts, and won the control battle for 3 minutes. He led the total strikes in this fight as well 138-111. More importantly, he just looked like he wanted this fight more. As unorthodox as he is, his conditioning is solid, and he has so much power. This was Price’s first win since 2021. 

Middleweight Bout: Kevin Holland (25-11) VS Michal Oleksiejczuk (19-8) 

Result: Kevin Holland wins by 1st round submission (armbar) 

The Polish power made an appearance early. Michal dropped Kevin Holland early on in the first round, but he chose to go to the ground when he couldn’t put away the lengthy Holland. And when Oleksiejczuk went to the ground it almost immediately proved to be a bad choice. Oleksijczuk looked lost, and Holland only needed 15-20 seconds to lock an armbar in. Oleksiejczuk deserves a lot of credit as he never tapped, and tried to keep fighting after his arm snapped. Good stoppage from Herb Dean. Sometimes you have to protect a fighter from themselves. Kevin Holland called himself a gatekeeper, but I agree with what Daniel Cormier said about him being “much more than that.” Holland has faced some of the top fighters in the organization, and can hang with any fighter they put in front of him. 

Light Heavyweight Bout: (1) Sean Strickland (29-6) VS Paulo Costa (14-4) 

Result: Sean Strickland wins by split decision (46-49, 50-45, 49-46) 

I’m not sure what the judge was seeing with Paul Costa winning 49-46, but at least Strickland rightfully was awarded the victory in this fight. Strickland looked composed the entire fight and just walked Costa down. Strickland’ cardio is insane, as he looked like he could easily fight another five rounds. Neither fighter attempted a takedown. But Strickland outstruck Costa 182-158. He threw 402 strikes to Costa’s 266. He was by far the active fighter. Costa worked the body and legs more frequently than Strickland. He hit Strickland to the body 84 times, and hit 46 leg kicks. It was a great fight and a great performance by both men. Costa has looked best that he’s looked in his career, and he’s lost his last two fights to Robert Whitaker and now Strickland. Not many guys ranked atop the division would fight down to the seventh ranked in the division, especially one as dangerous as Costa. But that is the beauty of Sean Strickland. The guy will really fight anybody. 

Lightweight Championship Bout: © Islam Makhachev (26-1) VS Dustin Poirier (30-9) 

Result: Islam Makhachev wins by 5th round submission (D’ Arce Choke) 

This was potentially the last time we see Dustin Poirier fight inside a UFC octagon. He didn’t say it outright, but definitely alluded to it. Dustin training with Mateusz Gamrot, one of the top wrestlers in the UFC made a serious impact. Dustin defended the grappling and takedowns much better than he did against Khabib Nurmagomedov years ago. But the champion Islam Makhachev deserves all the admiration. Everyone expected Islam to take his opponent down and suffocate him. He definitely used his grappling, converting 5 of 16 takedown attempts. But Islam’s striking continues to improve every time he’s in the octagon. He stood toe to toe with Dustin Poirier, landing 147 total strikes to Dustin’s 104, and Islam had 88 significant strikes. Islam also controlled the fight for 10-½ minutes. Dustin rallied in the 4th round, slicing the forehead of Islam and shaking the champion up a little bit. But Islam recovered in the short intermission heading into the final round, and in the fifth he entertained Dustin, but took Poirier down. After defending takedowns all fight long, the cardio gave out on Dustin, and Islam locked a D’Arce choke in on Dustin. There are a lot of interesting contenders emerging onto the lightweight division these days, but no matter who it is, Islam will remain the favorite. Incredible performance and great fight by both men.